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Neflands Diary

Predictions for an Age of Madness:

(not all powers covered)

(wot I reckon will happen, based on general strategic merit and not much
else..)  (The real results may be found here)

A Hng-Bes
A Ter-Pur
A Hub-UN1
A Vor-Koo
F Bla sub. F Kyt-GOB
A Gen-Vie
A Wyr-Gon
A Lla-Cut

I could go into reasons but they're a bit nebulous ATM..

You wanted implications of my orders?

Well, if CC plays along, Tezuma will fall next turn and I can drive
widdershins fairly strongly, and possibly consolidate Her/Klt aswell
(will require a build in How - a fleet, I think), as Ogg will have
trouble maintaining a land presence with only the one fleet (CC should
help keep Ogg back).

OTOH, if CC decides to be a b*****d, I'm up a certain creek. I'm down for
one build next turn, /possibly/, depending if I can get Klatch. My army
is stuck at home guessing, my fleet is essentially useless for a further
two turns...

A Lao-Klt
F SBe-Tez
A Nef sup. F SBe-Tez

This is an example of an opening that has, in general, gone very well for

The army in Laotan will easily take Klatch (a little talking to Ogg
should convince them that a SC in Bro is better than a bounce in Klt..),
and unless CC does something very strange, Tez will fall to my fleet,
giving me two builds. The prediction is that Ush will fall to Van aswell,
supported by Bet. Next turn Nef moves into Van (possibly supported), and
the push eastwards continues...

Builds: A fleet in How, to go bag Krull (hopefully I won't have to fight
Ogg (HTO-Bro-ROC-Kru) for it..), then circle up and see about
consolidating Her (depends who owns it).

In the "north", I can see Genua having trouble from that fleet in HOB -
it could easily strike Kyt (that is why I would have preferred
sacrificing a SC for guaranteed occupation of GOB). The only truely safe
defence would be Vie-Mom and SWA-Kyt, which would leave Bor open and
unowned for CC next turn (which would make support for Nef-Van easier to
come by).

Perhaps I can do something to help that along...

In other news, Ogg caught me off guard with a most cunning move into
Rmt - Hublands could gamble and hit Lancre, on the assumption that this
is a "feint" to Hub, in order to safeguard Lan, or could do the safe
thing and retreat back, sacrificing the SC. They will get one build
anyway, with a possibility of two (depends if he can talk XXXX into
allowing him Ku, or Gen into allowing NoT (hmm, Bla is threatened by GOB

Agatea seems to be making an "anti-Barbarian" opening, with a definite
goal being talking the lands around the Hub and pressing "south".
Predicting BHA-Naf and F Pel convoys A Sdi-Eca next turn, ready for a
supported strike - somewhere..

Hmm.. Looking at Ogg again - PSE is adjacent to Chi. Hmm.

"Hello, Ogg. Don't hit Klt, I want it - just take Bro instead, it's
guaranteed. Oh, worried about Chi? Don't be. CC want SCs guaranteed - Her
is almost safe, and I don't really think you want to contest it. He'd
just love it for you to run back into Chi while he goes elsewhere to grab

I think I've given you my moves (Lao-Klt, Sbe-Tez, Nef sup.)..

Something for the diary that I just noticed (must've been blind, buggrit,

If/when CC takes Ushistan (Van-Ush), the army will have a retreat option
(possibly..depending on Genua) of Borogrovia, giving Muntab at least one
build (and only one in the region). This could have good or bad

It may enable me to persuade CC to build an army in Omnia, then attack
Omn-Bor, supported by Bet, and use the unit in Ush to support my move
into Van. With enemy units in Muntab and Ghat, this would be in the best
intrests of a general play to close out Muntab and push him back.

On the other hand, if Genua takes Bor, things could get really messy..
What happens would depend on which side Genua takes, but either way would
be bad, I think. This is, however, IMO, not likely, as Boro is very
"exposed" from a Genuan POV - Mom or NoT (supported invasion) would be
much better as far as having the lowest border:SC ratio (which is the
best for defence).

A Ush-Bor (*bounce*, dislodged)

That's a stroke of luck... Means he can't retreat there, and hence Muntab
doesn't get any builds this turn. (but I get two! Yay.. :-) )

Muntab will presumably retreat into, well, Muntab, which will
unfortunately give him two armies bordering on Vanglemesh.. I will have
to ask for help from the CC to get in.

In other news.. Ogg are fulfilling all expectations by getting three
builds by the first build turn. Genua is getting boxed in (I still
maintain Kyr-GOB, supported by Bla would be the better move), Agatea has
made a move into Ecalpon, as predicted, and the Barbarians seem to have
some obscure agreement that misfired, to no ill.

Builds for the coming turn will be fleets in How and Ura (you can take
that down if you like) - a fleet in Howondaland to go for Krull (Ogg will
have to be warned off) and a fleet in Urabwe to go for Muntab.

On Thu, 21 Nov 1996, ""Hosun S. Lee"" wrote:

> My oh MY.
> Things worked out VERY nicely.

They did indeed.. Muntab bouncing Genua out of Boro - I think the Lady is
smiling on us. :-)

> I think that our next couples moves are blindingly obvious, don't you?

I don't think anything is blindingly obvious..

> So many possibilities. I await thine response.

Genua is having trouble with the Hubland Barbarians and Muntab's fleets
(he moved Reh-Oro, which surprised me somewhat - I thought it would be
send turnwise quicksmart to help with damage control), so can probably be
considered out of it for the moment.

Muntab has two units bordering on Vanglamesh. I'm picking him moving
Gha-Van, possibly supported by Muntab, so he has two bordering on
Ushistan for a push in next turn. I need to get an army into Van.
Borogrovia will probably be uncontested - you will have to talk to the
Hubland barbarians (now /there/ is a surprise result - 1st equal builds.
But then, I've seen Austria-Hungary do that in Eurodip too.. He has too
many neighbours. Picking him to have one disband next build, or at least
no builds) about sending Ueberwald somewhere else (or just sitting it there).

Otherwise..I think you should move Bet-Bor and grab the SC, and use Ush
to support my move into Van. At worst, I'll bounce. Actually, this is
quite probable, but never mind..

As to your build: A unit in Omnia would be nice as far as the war on
Muntab goes, but I think you really need to put it into Ankh-Morpork.
Otherwise, Ogg could give you some real trouble. You'll want to bring
that fleet out of Hersheba (don't worry about me..) and back into the
Psuedopolitan Sea, I think.

Me, I'm going to build fleets in Howondaland and Urabwe, one to go grab
Krull, the other to go for Muntab.

Ogg looks like a serious threat - IMO, what we need to do is try and
divert them against Agatea / Hubland Barbarians. We can easily hold
Muntab trapped (without advancing) using only three units, which means
that, if necessary, we can bring 6 other units against Ogg. It might be
worthwhile to ensure he knows this - that if he takes on the Circle
Cities, he may have bitten off more than he can chew (especially
considering his other neighbours will hardly sit still when they notice
his plight). On the other hand, if he leaves us alone, we will leave him
alone.. Umm. Probably find out where he's likely to go first, and if he
claims to be looking hubwards, just drop a subtle hint..

Err. Ok, recap: You build an army in Ank, I build two fleets in How/Ura.
Your army should probably be sent into the Sto Plains, where it will sit
for the next turn, to show Ogg you mean what you say. Unless it doe
ssomething else, like invade Ogg (if they attack you), bounce out (if Ogg
tries to move in), or ??.

Any other bridges, we'll fall off them when we come to them..

> Agatean
> B F Bes

Seems fairly obvious therefore that Agatea is either targetting the
Hublands Barbarians (Pel-Ctk, supported by Eca) or Ogg (Pel-Gon,
supported by Eca). I would tend to consider the latter more likely,
partially because of the missent message to the list by PIers, and
partially because a better unit for attacking the Barbarians would be a
fleet in Sdi (tc) to come round into the WWO and attack Ing, etc.

> Circle
> B A Omn
> B F Ank

Fleet in A-M seems insane to me.. Will have to find out what's oging on.

> Hubland
> B A Hub
> B F Ing
> B A Vor

No real surprises here. THe only one I wasn't sure about was Vor, but an
army there suggests XXXX is not a target. Picking the fleet in Ing to
move to HWO to support Bla, perhaps. The Barbarians are in a good
position to walk over Genua (Vot-Tro, and there's already that army in
Ube), but their stated intention to hit Ogg would conflict with this, and
there is also XXXX sitting in the wings, with no obvious aggressors..
Perhaps a deal has been signed to have XXXX take Genua. Really don't
know.. (might have to do some tlaking to find out)

> Ogg
> B F Wyr
> B A Lla
> B F Chi

The fleet in Chimeria is a bit of a worry. A fleet in Wyr is not
surprising, but a second one would tend to suggest Ogg is looking towards
me.. Three hostile fleets in that area are not good.

> B F Ter (hc)

Well, two fleets.. not much else you can do. And Pur is occupied. Picks:
Ku-HWO, LoF-WWO, HNL-TBB, Ter-RWO, although these would depend largely on
whether they are targetting Agatea (HNL-Sla, Ter-TBB, perhaps Ku holds)
or the mainland.

> Next phase is an adjustment phase with a deadline of Friday, 6pm GMT. 
Movement, shirley?

Preliminary moves will be:

A Nef-Van
F Tez holds
A Klt holds

Hopefully CC will support the move into Van, otherwise I have to go and
worry about Ogg...

Prelim. orders:

F Tez-Gha
A Van sup. F Tez=Gha

Haven't decided what I'm going with my other fleet yet.. Probably move it
into SUS, but if CC manages to take Rehigreed, that would be unfortunate.

In fact, that possibility is annoying in general, as it would essentially
cut me off. I would probably be forced to backstab and crunch CC,
hopefully with aid from Ogg or someone.

In other news... The Empire seems in grave danger of being crunched
between XXXX and Ogg. And Ogg and the Barbarians seem to have an unlikely
relationship, given the support Ctk-Eca received.

Umm, was just thinking about the usefullness of an XXXX move into MCS:
Very little. Perhaps if Hung-Hung bordered on TIN? As things stand, only
fleets can get to Agatea, and only armies can assault Hung-Hung.. Whether
this is a Good Thing or not I am unsure.

Genua seem in a bit of strife.. Kyt seems sure to fall, unless something
unlikely happens. GOB may run home to defend Reh, but the Barbaas are
unlikely to want to defend Kyt, given what Piers has said to me. NoT seems
doomed to fall aswell, with three aggressors. Picking Tro-Not to be
successful in time for the next build, although the Barbaas may need to
scramble to defend Hub - Ctk-Hub and Eca-Ctk should do it, but it would
depend what he had that army in Eca destined for as to whether he does it.

The Oggish move Chi-PSE is interesting. If Ogg were comitted to attaching
the Circle Cities, Bro would have moved into HTO (or Wyr would have)
instead, and Lan come down into Sto. Perhaps it was just a general
blockade / nondirectional threat, or just something to keep the PSE out of
CC hands. Otherwise, Ogg must be wondering how to go about assaulting
Agatea with only one fleet in the vicinity..but I see one way: if F SOS
convoys Gon-Wun, Hung-Hung would almost certianly fall next turn. And this
will free the way for Wyr-Gon, to move supported into PEL the following
turn. That's really the only thing I can see that would have any hope of
success, as Gon has no where to go (unless convoyed), and if SOS moves to
RTO to make way for Wyr to come into play, it doesn't have many options.
RTO-Wun, perhaps, but ...

Looking on the bright side, this might leave the Brown Islands woefully
undefended. :-) (course, if I do grab them, I'll have to use the SC to
build another fleet in How, to help defend.. That side of the map could
turn into a real naval battle. :-) )

Comments on the year to date..

Well XXXX are establishing themselves as a major naval power. I'm unsure
quite what they are trying to achieve though.. That Naf will fall seems
certain. THey could even force a disband, if they are willing to vacate
Ku. Other than that... Moving into TBB from Ku could see out a
long-distance convoy.

Genua seems to be making a healthy stab at being the first power to get
knocked out. This would obviously be something to look at when the game is
over - whether or not Genua is specifically disadvantaged, or whether they
just had bad luck in enemies (ie: too many :-) ).

The Barbarians predictably took NoThingFjord, moving out of Bla to force
the disband (although there would have had to have been one anyway). All
that remains to be seen is where they move next. To finish off Genua would
seem to require more units than are in place. An army in Vie would help,
but not be easy to get (unless the CC help), and wouldn't even produce a
supply centre. Things could be open for Muntab to move round into the
Swamp Sea and snatch a SC - or provoke a defence collapse allowing the
Barbarians to move in. Time will tell. Otherwise, I'm not sure who they
will target.. XXXX must be restrained, but expansion is quite slow for
them anyway. It might be wise to move Ech-Ctk, supported by Hub, then
Hub-Ool, supported by Ctk (assuming the first doesn't bounce). But that
doesn't make much progress. THe Hub is getting in the way..

Agatea are crumbling. Naf and Sdi will probably fall to XXXX, which will
allow Ogg to take Bes. All that will remain then is for one of the two to
convoy in a couple of armies (two required!) to take Hung-Hung.

Ogg also seem to have stalled somewhat, picking up no new SCs over the
past two turns. And getting more could be difficult, until Agatea's
defences have to disband. Attacking the Barbarians through the Hub would
be very hard, and targetting the Circle Cities, while plausible, would
encounter difficulties concerning ability to bring all units into play.
And then there are the Brown Islands - oh so vulnerable to a threat from
the Nef that they don't know about. :-)

Which brings us to the CC, Muntab, and the Nef-Lands - the local group.
And, unfortunately, yet somewhat predictably, I am getting cut off in
Muntab by the Circle Cities. I think I will pull my army out of Ghat and
into Van, and put a fleet into Ghat, to hold the fort. Hopefully both
moves will succede - if the A Gha-Van does not, that gives me all the
mandate I need..

For I fear I shall have to backstab the Circle Cities. Perhaps. Umm. Gods
things are messy.. I may be in deep trouble.

The situation as I see it:

What I have been thinking of doing - building a fleet in Howondaland, and
then moving Kru-ROC and How-GOR to bag the Brown Islands. Unfortunately,
this makes me an enemy in Ogg, which is not really wanted.. I may still do
this, only instead of taking Bro, I could move into HTO and Gor. The main
problem lies with Ogg's two fleets in Wyr and Chi. Perhaps time to give up
on that...

Another possibility would be building a fleet in Urabwe, which I move into
CAP, with Lao-Ura. Leaving my army in Ghat, I could move Tez-GOT, then
move Gha-Van and convoy from Ura into GOT. This would give me the extra
army needed in that vicinity, but could be a bit risky. Although... If I
fail to attack Farferee this turn - which would be good as I /don't/ want
Muntab retreating if Van is open - Muntab might feel inclined to just use
Far/Mun to support each other instead of challenging Ghat or anything. And
the CC would get their SC by the build turn anyway..or so they'd think.
Yes, this is starting to sound more promising.. Fleet in Ura, army in
Tsort, first turn Tso-Nef and the convoy described above, second turn..
Tsort could strike Eph - depends on the CC status - but otherwise, I'll
have armies in Ghat and Vang. Able either to target Muntab, or to provide
Hubwards-facing strategic defence - something fleets are unable to do.
Fleet in Krull moves to ROC and then GOR (have to reassure Ogg I'm not
about to try anything).. I'll have to think about this a bit more (and
talk to the CC about where they're building), but certaily worth

It seems that Agatea may fall before Genua. Genua's enemise cna't seem to
get in a decent line of attack - although we may see GOB-Swa provoking a
collapse soon. Agatea, however, is up the proverbial creek. F-SOS
convoyed to Wun as I predicted, and Hung-Hung will fall next turn at
least, possibly Bes aswell. Ogg will need to vacate a minimum of one SC,
therefore, and I'm picking F Wyr-Gon and A Lla supporting. It might be
worth his while to move F Chi-HTO aswell, just to make sure.

The Barbarians seem to be looking at an assault on XXXX - and XXXX are
well-caught, with the bulk of their forces away at Agatea. Purdeighland,
if so desired, must fall this turn. And if that results in no builds for
XXXX, Terra Incognita and HNL could fall. Oops - no home SCs. ;-) the important stuff.

If I'm to strike the CC, my forces are reasonably well-placed. Not quite
as nice as I could have hoped - I'd prefer ROC to be in GOR for the run
to Klatch, and there're still niggling fears over Muntab trying to move
into Ghat, but otherwise..

What I'm thinking about is this:

A Nef-Eph. Fairly obvious and guaranteed success.

F CAP/F GOT convoy A Ura-Ghat

These two give me armies in Ghat and Van. At this point the CC will
hopefully have one disband - Ksn, perhaps - and be scrambling to protect
their home SCs. Soo, the next turn we hit with a change of direction,
moving Ghat into Mun, supported by Van, and hitting Far with SUS. GOT
moves into Ghat to keep up the defence. This gives me a nice little
cordon around the rimwards CC provinces, which I merely need to tighten,
and an extra build, as Muntab will be in appalling shape, defence-wise.
(Just realised I haven't mentioned - obviously, I won't cut support from
Far this turn either)

F CAP disbands.

This is necessary as I'm only looking at one build otherwise, and I feel
I will need another fleet on the turnwise coast - in Howondaland -
otherwise things could get a little hairy. Looking at pushing it up
through Ymi into Klt, as I'd expect GOR to be bounced out of KLT by HER.

Speaking of which..


Obviously to defend Klatch from Hersheba.

That looks about it for this turn's moves. Builds will be, as I said, a
fleet in Howondaland, and a fleet in Tsort. The possibility of me
occupying the Circle Sea should see an immediate F PSE-CRC, which means
it can't be moving into the HTO to target Klatch. Unless he does that
/this/ turn.. which could prove problematical, but I may be able to
convince Ogg that a move into the HTO would be wise..I could even dangle
the carrot, to reverse a metaphore, of me moving F ROC-Bro. Will have to
be looked at. Certainly, Ogg's move A Lan-Sto this turn looks promising -
that it bounced sends a signal to both parties that the other is not
completely accomodating. Although neither supported the move, so that
also says that they aren't interested in open hostilities yet.

In all though, things could go quite nicely for me.

Or I suppose they could go terribly, but you need to take the odd minor
risk.. and I certainly feel that if I don't move very soon, I'll find
myself in the position of having to attack the CC or no one, and the CC a
lot bigger than they are now.

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